Monday, 23 January 2017

My Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards Nominations

by
Julien Faddoul


The nominations for the 88th Academy Awards are tomorrow morning. Despite their nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting them every year. Here are my final predictions.

I have made the necessary amount of predictions correlating to the limit of each category – 10 for PICTURE, 3 for MAKEUP and 5 for everything else – after which I list my alternates which I have limited myself to only 3.

BLUE = A lock at a nomination. Bet some money.


BEST PICTURE

La La Land is obviously head and shoulders above everything else. It could very well receive 14 nominations, which would tie it with All About Eve (1950) and Titanic (1997) as the most nominations in history. Maybe 15 even…probably not.

Moonlight, Manchester and Lion are all secure. Arrival is almost there. The question here is how many will the academy ultimately settle on. I have placed 10 here just because. But in all likelihood a Silence inclusion would be a shock. Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge all have good reasons to be included, as their positions have remained strong throughout the ongoing race of awards.

If we stop there, then there’ll be 8 nominees. That seems feasible. Everything under Fences is shaky.

Predictions:

1.     La La Land
2.     Moonlight
3.     Manchester by the Sea
4.     Lion
5.     Arrival
6.     Hell or High Water
7.     Hidden Figures
8.     Hacksaw Ridge
9.     Fences
10.  Silence


Alternates

11.  Jackie
12.  Nocturnal Animals
13.  Loving




DIRECTOR

The DGA line-up included Garth Davis over Mackenzie. And Gibson is also a possibility. I’m going with Mackenzie over the two Australians because 1) Davis is far more obscure and 2) I remain unconvinced of the so-called “welcoming back” of Gibson, who has most likely tarnished his name forever in Hollywood.

On the other hand, as we saw last year with Ridley Scott, sci-fi films rarely receive respect for their directorial labour, so Villeneuve is also vulnerable.

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Damien Chazelle
2.     Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
3.     Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
4.     Arrival – Denis Villeneuve
5.     Hell or High Water – David Mackenzie


Alternates

6.     Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson
7.     Lion – Garth Davis
8.     Silence – Martin Scorsese



ACTOR

This seems pretty tight to me. Edgerton could get in but I wouldn’t know over whom.

Predictions:

1.     Manchester by the Sea – Casey Affleck
2.     Fences – Denzel Washington
3.     La La Land – Ryan Gosling
4.     Hacksaw Ridge – Andrew Garfield
5.     Captain Fantastic – Viggo Mortensen


Alternates

6.     Loving – Joel Edgerton
7.     Sully – Tom Hanks
8.     Silence- Andrew Garfield



ACTRESS

The toughest category of the year. All 8 of these possibilities have legitimate reasons to pop up tomorrow morning. Huppert’s surprise win at the Globes should mean she’s a lock, but she wasn’t nominated at SAG. Streep's much beloved speech at that same ceremony has put her on everyone's lips.

Then we have the icky argument of nominating the African-American women purely out of guilt.

Your guess is as good as mine.

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Emma Stone
2.     Jackie – Natalie Portman
3.     Arrival – Amy Adams
4.     Elle – Isabelle Huppert
5.     Florence Foster Jenkins – Meryl Streep


Alternates

6.     20th Century Women – Annette Bening
7.     Loving – Ruth Negga
8.     Hidden Figures – Taraji P. Henson



SUPPORTING ACTOR

I cheated and placed 9 candidates here. I added Aaron Taylor-Johnson after his shocking win at the Globes for what has to be one of the worst performances of the year. I have decided to ignore it.

Neither Grant nor Hedges are sure things and I can see either of them falling out for the four below. This category throughout the years has always been the most volatile when it comes to nominations.

Predictions:

1.     Moonlight – Mahershala Ali
2.     Lion – Dev Patel
3.     Hell or High Water – Jeff Bridges
4.     Florence Foster Jenkins – Hugh Grant
5.     Manchester by the Sea – Lucas Hedges


Alternates

6.     Hell or High Water – Ben Foster
7.     Hidden Figures – Kevin Costner
8.     Nocturnal Animals – Aaron Taylor-Johnson
9.     Nocturnal Animals – Michael Shannon




SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I only put 7 here to make up for my cheat in the previous category.

This one seems pretty easy. This’ll be the five. Only thing I can see happening is Spencer switching with her co-star.

Fun fact: If by some oddity Kidman falls out in favour of Monae, that means Michelle Williams will find yourself up against four black women.

Predictions:

1.     Fences – Viola Davis
2.     Manchester by the Sea – Michelle Williams
3.     Moonlight – Naomie Harris
4.     Lion – Nicole Kidman
5.     Hidden Figures – Octavia Spencer


Alternates

6.     Hidden Figures – Janelle Monae
7.     20th Century Women – Greta Gerwig



ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Any of these eight could happen, with the first two being absolutely locked in.

Predictions:

1.     Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
2.     Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
3.     La La Land – Damien Chazelle
4.     Captain Fantastic – Matt Ross
5.     The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou


Alternates

6.     Zootopia – Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad, Jennifer Lee
7.     Toni Erdmann – Maren Ade
8.     20th Century Women – Mike Mills




ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A much fiercer category than its original counterpart. Many are predicting Ford but…I…just…can’t bring myself to place that disgusting screenplay on any list. It might end up costing me.

Predictions:

1.     Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
2.     Lion – Luke Davies
3.     Arrival – Eric Heisserer
4.     Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder
5.     Fences – August Wilson


Alternates

6.     Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
7.     Deadpool – Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick
8.     Silence – Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese



ANIMATED FILM

This category always finds some way to surprise every year. Therefore, only Zootopia is safe here. I do, however, feel very confident of the Pixar snub.

Predictions:

1.     Zootopia
2.     Kubo and the Two Strings
3.     Moana
4.     The Red Turtle
5.     My Life as a Zucchini


Alternates

6.     Your Name
7.     Finding Dory
8.     Sing!



FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Predictions:

1.     Toni Erdmann – Germany
2.     A Man Called Ove – Sweden
3.     Salesman – Iran
4.     Land of Mine – Denmark
5.     It’s Only the End of the World – Xavier Dolan


Alternates

6.     My Life as a Zucchini - Switzerland
7.     Tanna – Australia
8.     Paradise – Russia



CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Linus Sandgren
2.     Silence – Rodrigo Prieto
3.     Arrival – Bradford Young
4.     Moonlight – James Laxton
5.     Lion – Greig Fraser


Alternates

6.     Nocturnal Animals – Seamus McGarvey
7.     Hail, Caesar! – Roger Deakins
8.     Hell or High Water – Giles Nuttgens



PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
2.     Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig, James Hambige; Anna Pinnock
3.     Silence – Dante Ferretti; Francesca Lo Schiavo
4.     Jackie – Jean Rabasse; Veronique Melery
5.     Arrival – Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte


Alternates

6.     The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu
7.     Florence Foster Jenkins – Alan MacDonald
8.     Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh



COSTUME DESIGN

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Mary Zophres
2.     Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle
3.     Hidden Figures – Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
4.     Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
5.     The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu


Alternates

6.     The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson
7.     Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
8.     Allied – Joanna Johnston



FILM EDITING

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Tom Cross
2.     Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
3.     Moonlight – Joi McMillion, Nat Sanders
4.     Arrival – Joe Walker
5.     Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts


Alternates

6.     Manchester by the Sea – Jennifer Lame
7.     Nocturnal Animals – Joan Sobel
8.     Lion – Alexandre de Francheschi



SOUND

Predictions:

1.     La La Land
2.     Hacksaw Ridge
3.     Arrival
4.     Deepwater Horizon
5.     Rogue One: A Star Wars Story


Alternates

6.     Sully
7.     13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
8.     Deadpool



SOUND EDITING

Predictions:

1.     Hacksaw Ridge
2.     Arrival
3.     Deepwater Horizon
4.     13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
5.     Rogue One: A Star Wars Story


Alternates

6.     Sully
7.     La La Land
8.     Deadpool



VISUAL EFFECTS

Predictions:

1.     The Jungle Book
2.     Doctor Strange
3.     Arrival
4.     Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5.     Kubo and the Two Strings


Alternates

6.     Passengers
7.     Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8.     The BFG




MAKEUP

Predictions:

1.     Deadpool
2.     Florence Foster Jenkins
3.     Star Trek Beyond


Alternates

4.     A Man Called Ove
5.     Hail, Caesar!
6.     The Dressmaker
7.     Suicide Squad



ORIGINAL SCORE

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
2.     The BFG – John Williams
3.     Florence Foster Jenkins – Alexandre Desplat
4.     Moonlight – Nicholas Brittel
5.     Lion – Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka


Alternates

6.     Hidden Figures Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch
7.     Hacksaw Ridge – Rupert Gregson-Williams
8.     Jackie – Mica Levi




ORIGINAL SONG

Predictions:

1.     La La Land – “City of Stars”
2.     Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
3.     Hidden Figures – “Runnin”
4.     Sing Street – Drive it Like You Stole it
5.     Miss Sharon Jones – “I’m Still Here”


Alternates

6.     La La Land – “Audition”
7.     Trolls – “Can’t Stop This Feeling”
8.     Rules Don’t Apply – “Rules Don’t Apply




DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predictions:

1.     OJ: Made in America
2.     Fire at Sea
3.     13th
4.     Life, Animated
5.     I am Not Your Negro


Alternates

6.     Cameraperson
7.     The Eagle Huntress
8.     Tower



DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Predictions:

1.     The White Helmets
2.     Joe’s Violin
3.     Extremis
4.     4.1 Miles
5.     The Mute’s House


Alternates

6.     Frame 394
7.     Close Ties
8.     Watani: My Homeland



ANIMATED SHORT

Predictions:

1.     The Head Vanishes
2.     Inner Workings
3.     Pearl
4.     Piper
5.     Pear and Cider Cigarettes


Alternates

6.     Blind Vaysha
7.     Happy End
8.     Borrowed Time



LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Predictions:

1.     Nocturne in Black
2.     Ennemis Interieurs
3.     Silence Nights
4.     Timecode
5.     Graffiti


Alternates

6.     Sing (Mindenki)
7.     Le Femme et le TGV







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